FiscalCalc

Investment Return Calculator in Arizona

Investing 15% of Arizona's $81,486 median income ($12,223/year) at 7% grows to $1,154,594 over 30 years — $787,904 in investment gains on $366,690 contributed. State income tax 2.5% applies to gains in taxable accounts. Formula shown, sources cited — no account required.

$1155K
30yr Growth (15% savings, 7%)
2.5%
State Tax on Gains
~5.8%
After-Tax Return (Taxable Acct)
$
%

S&P 500 historical avg ≈ 10%

years

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Investment Return Formulas

Total return on a lump sum:

FV = PV × (1 + r)^t

PV = initial investment | r = annual return | t = years

CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate):

CAGR = (Ending Value ÷ Beginning Value)^(1 ÷ Years) − 1

With annual contributions:

FV = PMT × [(1 + r)^t − 1] ÷ r

PMT = annual contribution (end of year)

Arizona example — $$12,223/year at 7%:

  • After 10 years: $168,878 ($122,230 contributed)
  • After 20 years: $501,088 ($244,460 contributed)
  • After 30 years: $1,154,594 ($366,690 contributed + $787,904 gains)

Tax note for Arizona investors: In a taxable brokerage account, investment gains are subject to 2.5% state income tax plus federal capital gains tax (~15% for long-term). Combined rate ≈17.5%, reducing an effective 7% return to approximately 5.8% after tax. Tax-advantaged accounts avoid this drag entirely — use them first.

Questions You Might Ask — Investment Returns in Arizona

What does investing 15% of Arizona's median income grow to?+
Arizona's median household income is $81,486/year. Investing 15% ($12,223/year = $1,019/month) at a 7% annual return grows to: $168,878 after 10 years, $501,088 after 20 years, $1,154,594 after 30 years. Over 30 years, $366,690 in contributions generate $787,904 in investment gains — the 15% savings rate compounds to nearly 3.1× the amount invested.
What is CAGR and how is it calculated?+
CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) is the smooth annual rate at which an investment would need to grow to reach its ending value from its beginning value in a given period. Formula: CAGR = (Ending Value ÷ Beginning Value)^(1 ÷ Years) − 1. Example: $10,000 grows to $20,000 in 10 years → CAGR = (20,000 ÷ 10,000)^(1/10) − 1 = 2^0.1 − 1 = 7.18%. CAGR smooths out annual volatility to give a single, comparable return figure. The S&P 500's 10-year CAGR as of recent years has been approximately 12–14% nominally; long-run (since 1926) CAGR is approximately 10% annually.
How does Arizona's income tax affect investment returns?+
In Arizona, long-term capital gains in a taxable brokerage account are taxed at the state income tax rate of 2.5% plus federal long-term capital gains (typically 15%). Combined rate: approximately 17.5%. On a 7% gross return, the after-tax return in a taxable account is approximately 5.8% annually. This is why tax-advantaged accounts (401k, IRA, Roth IRA) are so valuable in higher-tax states — they eliminate the state tax drag on investment growth entirely.
What is a good annual return rate to use for Arizona projections?+
For diversified equity portfolio planning: 7% nominal is a widely used conservative long-run assumption (approximately the historical S&P 500 nominal return minus a 2–3% buffer for uncertainty and fees). The actual S&P 500 long-run nominal return (since 1926) is approximately 10%; after 3% inflation, the real return is approximately 7%. For a 60/40 stock-bond portfolio, 5–6% nominal is more realistic. For a money market or HYSA, 4–5% is achievable in the current rate environment but will change over time. Use 7% as a baseline for long-term projections; model at 5% and 9% to understand the range of outcomes.
Should Arizona investors prioritize tax-advantaged or taxable accounts?+
The order of operations is the same in every state, but generally recommended everywhere: (1) Capture the full 401(k) employer match first — immediate 50–100% return. (2) Max an HSA if eligible — triple tax advantage. (3) Max a Roth or Traditional IRA ($7,000/year in 2026). (4) Return to the 401(k) up to the $23,500 limit. (5) Invest in taxable brokerage accounts for amounts beyond these limits. In Arizona, every dollar in a tax-advantaged account avoids the 2.5% state income tax on contributions (Traditional) or on decades of growth (Roth).

Data Sources & Methodology

S&P 500 historical return data from Robert Shiller (Yale University) and Aswath Damodaran (NYU Stern). CAGR formula per CFA Institute. State income tax rates from Tax Foundation. Federal capital gains rates from IRS Publication 550. Median household income from U.S. Census Bureau ACS. Projections assume a fixed annual return rate; actual returns vary. Last updated 2026.

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State tax rates on investment gains vary — see local context for all 50 states.

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